Ag Market Commentary

Friday trades left the front months 2 1/2 to 3 cents lower, but May futures were still up 2 1/4 cents on the week. Private exporters reported an export sale of 114,048 MT of corn to unknown under the USDA daily system, for 2019/20 MY delivery. On March 24 managed money funds were net short 108,549 contracts for corn. That was their largest net short in 15 weeks, and came about mostly via long liquidation. International Grain Council estimates the World corn crop will be 4.3% higher yr/yr to about 1,160 MMT. Brazil’s Safras projected corn output at 105.8 MMT, well above USDA’s estimate of 101.0 MMT.

May 20 Corn closed at $3.46, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.51 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.56, down 3 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 3 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans go into the weekend mixed as the front months May and July were higher, while the nearby Aug and Sept contracts were UNCH and lower. May beans were 19 cents higher Friday to Friday. Soybean meal futures closed the week $2.10/ ton lower, but posted a Friday gain of 20 cents/ton for May contracts. May bean oil futures closed with a 35 point gain, which added to the 121 point gain wk/wk. Private exporters reported a large export sale of 163,290 MT of soybeans to Mexico with a 19/20 MY delivery. In the weekly update from the CFTC, soybean spec traders were 2,444 contracts net short on 03/24. That is less short by 28,202 contracts wk/wk, from short covering. Soybean meal spec trading also saw short covering and was 22,999 contracts more net long. Managed money soybean oil traders flipped to net short on Tuesday, their net long lasted 27 weeks. Brazil has shipped 7.18 MMT this month so far. The Foreign Trade Department forecasts the month total at 9.5 MMT which would be a 12% increase yr/yr. The IGC is projecting the world soybean crop will be 366 MMT vs. 341 MMT the previous year.

May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 3/4, unch,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.79, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybean Meal closed at $323.10, up $0.20

May 20 Soybean Oil closed at $26.85, up $0.35

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The front month wheat futures came back down from midday highs and finished the day mixed. Friday CBOT wheat was 2 1/4 cent higher in May; up 32 cents on the week. HRW futures were down a half penny, but closed 19 3/4 cents higher wk/wk. May MPLS wheat gained 5 3/4 cents on the last trade day of the week, securing a weekly gain of 19 cents/bu. The CoT report with data from March 24 showed that in a bout of short covering, CBOT spec traders were back to net long. Managed money OI in CBOT wheat was down 116,191 contracts over the last 5 weeks. Managed money was 7,950 contracts less net short wk/wk in KC wheat; to 5,356 contracts. MPLS wheat spec traders were less net short wk/wk to 16,307 contracts. Taiwan purchased 99,450 MT of wheat from the U.S. in their international tender. Turkey purchased 175,000 MT of wheat from the Black Sea region.

May 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.71 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

May 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.86 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37, up 5 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The last trade day of the week had April cattle futures down the expanded limit, and they will trade with expanded limits again on Monday. April cattle futures were still $2.30 higher Fri/Fri after 4 limit move days. Feeder cattle futures were down the expanded limit in the front months. Wk/wk May feeders posted a $2.67 gain. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $1.94 to $130.44 on 03/26. The cash market trades this week were $117 to $120.50 with the bulk at $120. Dressed were $188 to $190. The CFTC released their weekly Commitment of Traders report, showing cattle specs flipped net short for only the 4th time on record (going back to June 2006). Cattle spec trader OI was down 28,923 contracts over the last 2 weeks. Managed money was 1,608 contracts net short in feeder cattle, which was 1,112 contracts less short wk/wk. Afternoon boxed beef prices were mixed, with the Chc/Sel spread tighter to $10.46. Choice boxes were $252.84 cwt., down $0.73. Select boxes were $242.38 cwt., up $0.21. USDA estimated the week’s FI cattle slaughter at 676,000 head through Saturday. That is 57,000 head more that the same week last year. YTD slaughter is estimated at 8.012 million head, 203,000 head higher yr/yr. Estimated YTD beef production through 03/28 is 6.634 billion lbs, that is up 4.8% yr/yr. Total red meat production is up 10.9% yr/yr.

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $100.950, down $4.500,

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $89.425, down $4.125,

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $90.450, down $4.025,

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $120.600, down $4.500

May 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $120.925, down $4.500

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $127.100, down $4.500

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures were down the expanded limit in the May and June contracts, April hogs were a nickel off. Friday’s trades erased the week’s early progress as April hog futures were $3.12 lower wk/wk. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 25th was $66.17, up another $1.05, still ignoring the futures action. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $58.07, down by 77 cents on Friday. CFTC data from Tuesday showed lean hog spec traders were 23,130 contracts net long. Managed money OI is down 41.6% over the last 5 weeks to 80,142 contracts. USDA estimated this week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.754 million head through Saturday. That is 226,000 head more than the same week last year. YTD slaughter is currently 5.0% above last year’s pace. USDA estimated YTD pork production through 03/28 at 7.174 billion lbs, which is 5.4% higher yr/yr.

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $58.450, down $4.450,

May 20 Hogs closed at $57.625, down $4.500

Jun 20 Hogs closed at $64.250, down $4.500

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures were down 112 to 155 points ahead of the weekend. May futures were 249 points lower from Friday to Friday. The weekly CoT report showed managed money cotton funds were 15,255 contracts net short on 03/24. That is the largest net short in 23 weeks. Managed money OI was down 3,576 contracts wk/wk to 53,551 contracts. Spec trader OI as of Tuesday was the lowest it’s been since 02/14 of 2012. The 03/26 Cotlook A index was back up 50 points to 63.55 c/lb. The AWP for cotton was 496 points lower than the previous week, at 44.99. The LDP is 7.01.

May 20 Cotton closed at 51.33, down 145 points,

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 51.28, down 155 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 53.34, down 137 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 53.49, down 112 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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